Key Takeaways
- • Recruiting Insight's Q3 2026 Agent Migration and Brokerage Model Performance Report, released with Lone Wolf Technologies, finds about 1 in 8 producing real estate agents change brokerages each year, so a 100-agent brokerage should plan to replace roughly 12.
- • The report tracks 109,176 producing agents and $688.6 billion in annualized closed volume across four U.S. multiple listing services (Mid-Atlantic, Southeast, Mid-South and West) from Q4 2024 through Q3 2026.
- • Sagging sales are not a reliable predictor of departures: agents whose production fell 25% or more moved no more often than others, while an office losing 20% or more of its agents sees remaining agents 1.9 times as likely to follow.
- • Agents who changed firms in the past year are 1.7 times as likely to move again, and 87 agents producing $20 million or more annually changed firms in Q3, the most in eight quarters.
- • About $14.4 billion in annualized production changed firms in Q3 alone, and independent brokerages continued to draw agents from national franchise brands.
Summary
Recruiting Insight released its Agent Migration and Brokerage Model Performance Report for Q3 2026 on October 20, 2026, prepared with Lone Wolf Technologies. The quarterly report analyzes closing records for 109,176 producing agents and $688.6 billion in annualized closed volume across four large U.S. multiple listing services, and draws on 200 hours of agent exit interviews. Figures describe these four markets rather than the national market.
According to the report, the strongest predictor of who leaves next is who left last. Agents who changed firms in the past year are 1.7 times as likely to move, and when an office loses 20% or more of its agents to rivals, the remaining agents are 1.9 times as likely to follow. Production declines were not a meaningful warning sign: agents whose production fell 25% or more moved no more often than anyone else. Exit interviews identified eight drivers of departure, including leadership direction, training, culture and compensation, and five of these do not appear in closing data.
Competitive flows also shifted. One fast-growing cloud-based brokerage added 131 net agents in Q3, its eighth straight quarter of gains, and drew 39% of its recruits from two competitors. Franchise brands have lost agents in all eight quarters tracked, though losses are narrowing, and 53% of agents leaving national brands went to independent firms. Independents had gained production from national brands for seven straight quarters before a one-quarter reversal in Q3 driven by four large exits.
On recruiting outcomes, 35 of every 100 recruits had no closing the quarter after joining, and only 4 had already moved again. The report also finds that moves peak each January and that only 1 in 5 new agents becomes a steady producer within a year. The report further restates a widely cited statistic: about 47% of MLS subscribers closed no deals in the past year, versus the 70% often quoted, or 31% to 47% after adjusting for team members whose deals are recorded under a team leader.
Mark D. Johnson, MBA, Managing Partner of Recruiting Insight and author of the report, said that warning signs are found in an agent's history and surroundings, particularly when colleagues begin to leave. The full report, including a scoreboard of 13 major brands presented as descriptive personas rather than named companies, is available at recruitinginsight.net/report. The report notes that Q2 2026 figures were restated under refined data-cleaning rules.
According to the report, the strongest predictor of who leaves next is who left last. Agents who changed firms in the past year are 1.7 times as likely to move, and when an office loses 20% or more of its agents to rivals, the remaining agents are 1.9 times as likely to follow. Production declines were not a meaningful warning sign: agents whose production fell 25% or more moved no more often than anyone else. Exit interviews identified eight drivers of departure, including leadership direction, training, culture and compensation, and five of these do not appear in closing data.
Competitive flows also shifted. One fast-growing cloud-based brokerage added 131 net agents in Q3, its eighth straight quarter of gains, and drew 39% of its recruits from two competitors. Franchise brands have lost agents in all eight quarters tracked, though losses are narrowing, and 53% of agents leaving national brands went to independent firms. Independents had gained production from national brands for seven straight quarters before a one-quarter reversal in Q3 driven by four large exits.
On recruiting outcomes, 35 of every 100 recruits had no closing the quarter after joining, and only 4 had already moved again. The report also finds that moves peak each January and that only 1 in 5 new agents becomes a steady producer within a year. The report further restates a widely cited statistic: about 47% of MLS subscribers closed no deals in the past year, versus the 70% often quoted, or 31% to 47% after adjusting for team members whose deals are recorded under a team leader.
Mark D. Johnson, MBA, Managing Partner of Recruiting Insight and author of the report, said that warning signs are found in an agent's history and surroundings, particularly when colleagues begin to leave. The full report, including a scoreboard of 13 major brands presented as descriptive personas rather than named companies, is available at recruitinginsight.net/report. The report notes that Q2 2026 figures were restated under refined data-cleaning rules.
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