Key Takeaways
- • Only 20% of U.S. energy-sector leaders say their organizations consistently deliver major infrastructure projects on time and budget, versus 30% globally, according to Jacobs Solutions' Energy Readiness Equation survey of 600 senior decision-makers.
- • Project permitting is the top U.S. constraint, cited by 80% of respondents as one of their three largest systemic barriers, the highest share among the five countries surveyed; 63% cited policy or regulatory uncertainty.
- • Aterio data show roughly 30 GW to 40 GW of new U.S. data-center capacity announced monthly versus about 7 GW entering construction and 2 GW to 3 GW entering operation.
- • Bernstein estimates 170 GW, or 35%, of 488 GW of probability-weighted North American projects will likely be built eventually, and about 13 years would be needed to clear its 404 GW development pipeline at the prevailing construction rate.
- • Power availability, grid interconnection and long-lead equipment such as transformers, switchgear and turbines increasingly determine which data-center projects advance.
Summary
According to new research from contractor Jacobs Solutions, released Oct. 27, only one in five U.S. energy-sector leaders says their organization consistently delivers major infrastructure projects on time and budget. The Energy Readiness Equation report surveyed 600 senior energy-sector decision-makers across the U.S., UK, Germany, Australia and Singapore. Another 49% of U.S. respondents said they meet targets only with significant effort or trade-offs, while 23% described delays and overruns as common. Jacobs found that capital is not necessarily the limiting factor: 71% of respondents globally said sufficient capital is available, but only 29% said both capital and enough investment-ready projects exist.
Jacobs President of Global Operations Patrick Hill said the U.S. delivery gap reflects several constraints converging as electricity demand accelerates, including grid connection, permitting, long-lead equipment and supporting infrastructure. Jacobs global energy solutions director Andy Solberg said time to power has come to dominate data-center planning. Permitting was the leading U.S. constraint, while 51% identified grid or network readiness.
Data from other trackers reinforces the gap between announcements and delivery. Aterio CEO Sergio Toro said roughly 30 GW to 40 GW of new U.S. data-center capacity is announced each month, compared with about 7 GW entering construction and 2 GW to 3 GW entering operation, figures he described as approximate. Bernstein, using Aterio data with a different methodology, probability-weighted 488 GW of North American projects in its September analysis and estimated 170 GW, or 35%, would likely be built eventually. The firm tracked 404 GW in the development pipeline and 72.9 GW under construction in August. MSI Economics separately estimated that of 12 GW to 16 GW of data-center capacity projected for 2026 delivery, only about 5 GW was under construction.
Jacobs' international findings indicate the problem is not solely American, though constraints vary by market. In the UK, 59% ranked grid or network readiness among their three largest barriers, and 76% pointed to grid operators as the body with the greatest ability to accelerate or delay projects. In Germany, 84% expect at least a quarter of major energy infrastructure projects to face delays or overruns over three years. In Australia, 49% said sufficient capital exists without enough investment-ready projects, and 61% cited surrounding infrastructure as a major constraint. Jacobs concludes that projects can have strategic importance and sound business cases yet still stall when grid connections, permitting, equipment or surrounding infrastructure are not ready.
Jacobs President of Global Operations Patrick Hill said the U.S. delivery gap reflects several constraints converging as electricity demand accelerates, including grid connection, permitting, long-lead equipment and supporting infrastructure. Jacobs global energy solutions director Andy Solberg said time to power has come to dominate data-center planning. Permitting was the leading U.S. constraint, while 51% identified grid or network readiness.
Data from other trackers reinforces the gap between announcements and delivery. Aterio CEO Sergio Toro said roughly 30 GW to 40 GW of new U.S. data-center capacity is announced each month, compared with about 7 GW entering construction and 2 GW to 3 GW entering operation, figures he described as approximate. Bernstein, using Aterio data with a different methodology, probability-weighted 488 GW of North American projects in its September analysis and estimated 170 GW, or 35%, would likely be built eventually. The firm tracked 404 GW in the development pipeline and 72.9 GW under construction in August. MSI Economics separately estimated that of 12 GW to 16 GW of data-center capacity projected for 2026 delivery, only about 5 GW was under construction.
Jacobs' international findings indicate the problem is not solely American, though constraints vary by market. In the UK, 59% ranked grid or network readiness among their three largest barriers, and 76% pointed to grid operators as the body with the greatest ability to accelerate or delay projects. In Germany, 84% expect at least a quarter of major energy infrastructure projects to face delays or overruns over three years. In Australia, 49% said sufficient capital exists without enough investment-ready projects, and 61% cited surrounding infrastructure as a major constraint. Jacobs concludes that projects can have strategic importance and sound business cases yet still stall when grid connections, permitting, equipment or surrounding infrastructure are not ready.
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