Key Takeaways
- • Benchmark Mineral Intelligence forecasts global lithium demand reaching around 7 million tonnes LCE by 2050, more than triple the 2.11Mt LCE forecast for 2026, with 76% driven by electric vehicles.
- • Benchmark estimates the equivalent of 134 new lithium mines will be required by 2050, representing over US$100 billion (about $142.45 billion) in investment, with an upside scenario exceeding 180 mines.
- • Australia's share of mined lithium supply is expected to fall from 29% in 2026 to 20% by 2050, while North America's rises from 1.7% to 13% on government supply-chain security efforts.
- • Benchmark forecasts recycling will supply nearly 50% of lithium by 2050, though Benchmark's Cameron Perks says the base case "asks a lot" of recycling given battery end-of-life timing and cost competitiveness.
- • Perks identifies sustaining investment through price cycles while competing with AI, defence and the wider energy transition as the industry's biggest challenge.
Summary
A new report from Benchmark Mineral Intelligence projects that the lithium industry will need the equivalent of 134 new mines between now and 2050 to meet growing demand. Benchmark forecasts global lithium demand of around 7 million tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) in 2050, up from 2.11Mt LCE forecast for 2026. Electric vehicles are expected to drive 76% of that demand, and batteries account for 92% of total lithium demand. Product Director Cameron Perks said the required build-out equates to over US$100 billion (about $142.45 billion) in investment, and that Benchmark's upside scenario could push the requirement above 180 mines.
Perks flagged investment sustainability as the central challenge, noting that capital must be maintained through price cycles while competing with AI, defence and the broader energy transition. Stationary storage has recently boosted demand, growing more than 60% a year over the past two years, but Benchmark expects that pace to slow to around 5% annually through the end of the decade.
On supply, Australia remains the leading mined lithium producer at 29% of supply in 2026, though its share is forecast to decline to 20% by 2050 as many current mines deplete and price volatility and regulatory burdens weigh on investment. PLS's P2000m brownfield expansion, expected to start around 2030, is a notable offset. China's share is expected to hold near 25%. North America's share is projected to rise from 1.7% to 13% by 2050, driven by government efforts to reduce foreign dependence, while Europe's share is expected to grow from under 1% to 5.5%, though environmental and community concerns remain barriers in both regions.
Recycling is expected to supply nearly half of lithium needs by 2050, reducing the number of new mines required. Perks cautioned that recycling is limited by battery end-of-life timing and must compete with mining on cost, and that any shortfall must come from mines.
Explorers form the pipeline for that future supply. Examples cited in the report include Venari Minerals (ASX:VMS), which is advancing the Red Mountain Project in Nevada with 99.5% battery-grade lithium carbonate achieved in metallurgical testing and a resource upgrade and Scoping Study targeted for February and March 2027; Q2 Metals (TSX-V:QTWO), whose Cisco Lithium Project in Quebec is described as North America's largest spodumene deposit, with 19,521m drilled across 43 holes in the 2026 summer program and an original inferred resource of 295Mt at 1.36% lithium oxide; and Solis Minerals (ASX:SLM), advancing lithium and copper projects in Brazil and Peru, including drilling at Campo Grande that began in September 2026.
Perks flagged investment sustainability as the central challenge, noting that capital must be maintained through price cycles while competing with AI, defence and the broader energy transition. Stationary storage has recently boosted demand, growing more than 60% a year over the past two years, but Benchmark expects that pace to slow to around 5% annually through the end of the decade.
On supply, Australia remains the leading mined lithium producer at 29% of supply in 2026, though its share is forecast to decline to 20% by 2050 as many current mines deplete and price volatility and regulatory burdens weigh on investment. PLS's P2000m brownfield expansion, expected to start around 2030, is a notable offset. China's share is expected to hold near 25%. North America's share is projected to rise from 1.7% to 13% by 2050, driven by government efforts to reduce foreign dependence, while Europe's share is expected to grow from under 1% to 5.5%, though environmental and community concerns remain barriers in both regions.
Recycling is expected to supply nearly half of lithium needs by 2050, reducing the number of new mines required. Perks cautioned that recycling is limited by battery end-of-life timing and must compete with mining on cost, and that any shortfall must come from mines.
Explorers form the pipeline for that future supply. Examples cited in the report include Venari Minerals (ASX:VMS), which is advancing the Red Mountain Project in Nevada with 99.5% battery-grade lithium carbonate achieved in metallurgical testing and a resource upgrade and Scoping Study targeted for February and March 2027; Q2 Metals (TSX-V:QTWO), whose Cisco Lithium Project in Quebec is described as North America's largest spodumene deposit, with 19,521m drilled across 43 holes in the 2026 summer program and an original inferred resource of 295Mt at 1.36% lithium oxide; and Solis Minerals (ASX:SLM), advancing lithium and copper projects in Brazil and Peru, including drilling at Campo Grande that began in September 2026.
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