Key Takeaways
- • SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son projects global AI infrastructure will require $5 trillion in annual investment by 2040, driven by data centers, power supplies, and humanoid robot deployment across the economy.
- • Son dismisses AI bubble concerns, asserting that artificial superintelligence will ultimately contribute at least 10% to global GDP, with revenues potentially reaching 20% of global GDP by 2040.
- • SoftBank's strategic vision centers on an "agent-centered" future economy where up to 100 trillion AI agents communicate and perform tasks autonomously, fundamentally reshaping labor and economic productivity.
- • Son characterizes bubble criticism as "absurd" and a "rounding error," indicating confidence that the massive capital requirements represent essential infrastructure investment rather than speculative excess.
- • The forecast reflects SoftBank's positioning to lead in artificial superintelligence—AI surpassing human intelligence by 10,000x—as a core strategic objective outlined at SoftBank World 2026 in Tokyo on July 14.
Summary
SoftBank Group founder Masayoshi Son unveiled an ambitious long-term forecast during SoftBank World 2026, projecting that global artificial intelligence infrastructure will demand $5 trillion in annual investment by 2040. The projection encompasses expansions in data centers, power supplies, and humanoid robotics necessary to support a fundamental shift in economic organization away from human-centered labor toward an "agent-centered" model. Son envisions as many as 100 trillion AI agents operating across the global economy, communicating and executing tasks in a decentralized, autonomous manner.
Son's forecast carries significant implications for infrastructure, semiconductor, and energy sectors. The sheer scale of required investment—$5 trillion annually by 2040—would dwarf current AI spending and represents a multidecade capital commitment spanning hardware, computational infrastructure, and power generation. This projection positions SoftBank strategically within conversations about AI infrastructure as a critical investment theme for institutional capital allocation.
Critically, Son rejected widespread concerns about AI bubble formation, characterizing such criticism as unfounded. He argued that AI-driven productivity gains will deliver at least 10% uplift to global GDP, with revenues potentially reaching 20% of global GDP by 2040—sufficient economic value creation to justify the required capital deployment. By framing bubble concerns as "absurd" and a "rounding error" relative to long-term value creation, Son signals conviction that current and future AI investments represent necessary foundational infrastructure rather than speculative excess.
SoftBank's stated strategic objective includes leadership in artificial superintelligence—autonomous AI systems surpassing human intelligence by a factor of 10,000x. This positioning reflects Son's view that the current AI cycle represents an inflection point comparable to prior technological revolutions, with the scale of required capital and the breadth of economic disruption justifying extraordinary investment commitments. The company's public articulation of these targets at an investor-focused forum suggests SoftBank is calibrating institutional expectations around both the timeline and magnitude of the AI-driven capital cycle ahead.
Son's forecast carries significant implications for infrastructure, semiconductor, and energy sectors. The sheer scale of required investment—$5 trillion annually by 2040—would dwarf current AI spending and represents a multidecade capital commitment spanning hardware, computational infrastructure, and power generation. This projection positions SoftBank strategically within conversations about AI infrastructure as a critical investment theme for institutional capital allocation.
Critically, Son rejected widespread concerns about AI bubble formation, characterizing such criticism as unfounded. He argued that AI-driven productivity gains will deliver at least 10% uplift to global GDP, with revenues potentially reaching 20% of global GDP by 2040—sufficient economic value creation to justify the required capital deployment. By framing bubble concerns as "absurd" and a "rounding error" relative to long-term value creation, Son signals conviction that current and future AI investments represent necessary foundational infrastructure rather than speculative excess.
SoftBank's stated strategic objective includes leadership in artificial superintelligence—autonomous AI systems surpassing human intelligence by a factor of 10,000x. This positioning reflects Son's view that the current AI cycle represents an inflection point comparable to prior technological revolutions, with the scale of required capital and the breadth of economic disruption justifying extraordinary investment commitments. The company's public articulation of these targets at an investor-focused forum suggests SoftBank is calibrating institutional expectations around both the timeline and magnitude of the AI-driven capital cycle ahead.
Go deeper than the headline
Research every firm in this story, track the ones that matter and get the daily briefing — free for 7 days.