Key Takeaways
- • PitchBook data shows reaching a $5 billion valuation takes 80% less time but 74% more capital, per its latest U.S. Valuations report, raising the bar for profitable exits.
- • PitchBook senior research analyst Emily Zheng says the IPO window "has not reopened" outside select names such as SpaceX and Anthropic, with exit value still at the constrained level seen every year since the pandemic.
- • M&A exits are discounted: Bending Spoons acquired Airtable for $1.28 billion in cash versus its 2021 peak valuation of $11.7 billion, and also bought Miro at a significant discount.
- • Anthropic's expected IPO is viewed as a bellwether for AI valuations, with Zheng noting strong performance would validate private AI valuations while weak performance would call them into question.
Summary
Fortune's Term Sheet newsletter, written by Allie Garfinkle, argues that structural weaknesses in venture capital are becoming visible just as Anthropic prepares to go public, with the listing expected as soon as the following week. The column frames the IPO as a potential banner moment for the sector, while warning that venture is "structurally over its skis."
Citing PitchBook's latest U.S. Valuations report, the piece notes that reaching a $5 billion valuation now takes 80% less time but 74% more capital. PitchBook senior research analyst Emily Zheng told Fortune that higher valuations raise the bar for profitable exits, and that AI is expensive to run. She also pointed to large amounts of AI-related debt and a likely slowdown in data center expansion following the recent election.
Exit conditions remain difficult. Zheng said the IPO window has not reopened for most companies, with 2026 listings concentrated in health care and high-growth technology names that limited partners need for distributions largely absent. Excluding mega IPOs, she said exit value remains at the same constrained level seen since the pandemic. M&A is available but discounted, with Bending Spoons' acquisitions of Airtable for $1.28 billion in cash and Miro at significant discounts cited as examples of valuation compression.
PitchBook's U.S. VC Fundraising and Returns data suggests the current vintage could face pressure, since past funds have not necessarily performed well in high-interest-rate periods. The column notes that new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has already raised rates once in 2026 and that another hike is on the table for December, though causality cannot be proven. Zheng said the outlook for current vintages will likely not match their current markups.
Post-IPO performance of recent large listings is mixed. CoreWeave and Circle are up about 52% and 116% respectively since listing, while Figma is down about 42% and Cerebras is down roughly 45%. Zheng said strong Anthropic performance would validate AI's private valuations and revive dealmaking, while weak performance would raise questions about whether AI companies are substantially overvalued.
The same newsletter's deals section also reported several venture rounds, including Fractile's $720 million Series C led by Thrive Capital, Founders Fund, Lightspeed and Redpoint, and Imprint's $130 million raise led by Khosla Ventures. It also noted The 81 Collection's $82 million additional close for its second fund, which targets minority investments in founder-owned businesses.
Citing PitchBook's latest U.S. Valuations report, the piece notes that reaching a $5 billion valuation now takes 80% less time but 74% more capital. PitchBook senior research analyst Emily Zheng told Fortune that higher valuations raise the bar for profitable exits, and that AI is expensive to run. She also pointed to large amounts of AI-related debt and a likely slowdown in data center expansion following the recent election.
Exit conditions remain difficult. Zheng said the IPO window has not reopened for most companies, with 2026 listings concentrated in health care and high-growth technology names that limited partners need for distributions largely absent. Excluding mega IPOs, she said exit value remains at the same constrained level seen since the pandemic. M&A is available but discounted, with Bending Spoons' acquisitions of Airtable for $1.28 billion in cash and Miro at significant discounts cited as examples of valuation compression.
PitchBook's U.S. VC Fundraising and Returns data suggests the current vintage could face pressure, since past funds have not necessarily performed well in high-interest-rate periods. The column notes that new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh has already raised rates once in 2026 and that another hike is on the table for December, though causality cannot be proven. Zheng said the outlook for current vintages will likely not match their current markups.
Post-IPO performance of recent large listings is mixed. CoreWeave and Circle are up about 52% and 116% respectively since listing, while Figma is down about 42% and Cerebras is down roughly 45%. Zheng said strong Anthropic performance would validate AI's private valuations and revive dealmaking, while weak performance would raise questions about whether AI companies are substantially overvalued.
The same newsletter's deals section also reported several venture rounds, including Fractile's $720 million Series C led by Thrive Capital, Founders Fund, Lightspeed and Redpoint, and Imprint's $130 million raise led by Khosla Ventures. It also noted The 81 Collection's $82 million additional close for its second fund, which targets minority investments in founder-owned businesses.
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