Key Takeaways
- • A small group of venture capitalists captures the bulk of industry profits: according to a Stanford GSB study by Ilya Strebulaev and Blake Jackson of Ohio State University, the top 5% of VCs in the sample generated 90% of all net profits.
- • The top 1% of VCs, roughly 120 individuals, account for more than half of all profits generated by venture capitalists between 1996 and 2025.
- • The study's sample of just over 12,000 U.S. VCs generated $1.2 trillion in inflation-adjusted net profits over that period.
- • Only 38% of VCs with at least one investment are credited with a successful outcome, and only 15% manage three or more successful deals over their careers.
- • Junior associates are up to 83 percentage points less likely to become partners than those who enter at VP, principal, or other mid-level roles.
Summary
A Stanford Graduate School of Business study finds that venture capital returns are highly concentrated among a small number of individuals. Professor Ilya Strebulaev and Blake Jackson of Ohio State University assembled what they describe as the largest dataset of individual VCs to date, drawing on a sample of just over 12,000 VCs at U.S. firms, from a broader pool of 100,000 VC-affiliated professionals. The sample generated $1.2 trillion in inflation-adjusted net profits between 1996 and 2025.
According to the research, the top 5% of VCs generated 90% of all net profits in the sample, and the top 1%, roughly 120 individuals, accounted for more than half. Success is measured by outcomes such as an IPO, a unicorn valuation, or a sale valuing a company at no less than 5x capital raised. Just 38% of VCs with at least one investment are credited with a successful outcome, and only 15% manage three or more successful deals.
The study links success to professional background. Among VCs with six or more successful deals, 52% majored in STEM as undergraduates and 37% hold an MBA from an elite business school, with Stanford GSB alumni particularly prominent. Entry level also matters: VCs who start as junior associates are up to 83 percentage points less likely to become partners than those who enter at VP, principal, or other mid-level roles. Women make up 16% of VCs, but only 5.4% of those with six or more successful deals. The authors say the reasons for these gaps are unclear and call for further research.
Strebulaev says the findings matter to three groups: limited partners, who can select VCs with greater confidence; VCs, who can benchmark against peers; and founders, who can use the insights in choosing investors.
According to the research, the top 5% of VCs generated 90% of all net profits in the sample, and the top 1%, roughly 120 individuals, accounted for more than half. Success is measured by outcomes such as an IPO, a unicorn valuation, or a sale valuing a company at no less than 5x capital raised. Just 38% of VCs with at least one investment are credited with a successful outcome, and only 15% manage three or more successful deals.
The study links success to professional background. Among VCs with six or more successful deals, 52% majored in STEM as undergraduates and 37% hold an MBA from an elite business school, with Stanford GSB alumni particularly prominent. Entry level also matters: VCs who start as junior associates are up to 83 percentage points less likely to become partners than those who enter at VP, principal, or other mid-level roles. Women make up 16% of VCs, but only 5.4% of those with six or more successful deals. The authors say the reasons for these gaps are unclear and call for further research.
Strebulaev says the findings matter to three groups: limited partners, who can select VCs with greater confidence; VCs, who can benchmark against peers; and founders, who can use the insights in choosing investors.
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