(This post was originally published on February 17, 2021.)
Overview
US nominal and real 10s (currently 1.2%, -0.95%) are likely to rise 100-150 basis points over the following 12-14 months, with a growing tail of an overshoot.We see the eurodollar curve steepening as participants pull forward rate hike expectations from 2H2023 to 2H2022US equities likely underperform given sector composition (68.5% of US market cap concentrated in deflationary and defensive assets -- tech, utilities, health care,